A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
